FFBL FAIR VALUE Rs. 42

FFBL Current Price: Rs. 27.00

FFBL FAIR VALUE Rs. 42

FFBL is currently trading at CY08E P/Ex of 7.7x (sector CY08E P/E: 10.5x). The scrip offers 49% TSR (including 13% dividend yield) from our Dec 08 PT of Rs. 42/share. FFBL is now set to produce 637k & 675k tons of urea & DAP p.a. from CY09. FFBL is likely to benefit from ever increasing international DAP prices coupled with assured demand of the product. The company also has the advantage of timely supply of Phosacid (basic DAP raw material) courtesy its JV with PMP Morac. FFBL sales revenue is expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 100%, whereas PAT is expected to increase by 3-year CAGR of 21%. We expect the company to continue its high divided payout in the future. Major risks to our valuation include a more/less than anticipated increase in DAP prices, global shortage of Phosacid, change in subsidy on DAP and Urea, increase in discount rate. We recommend Buy at current levels.

FABL "FAYSAL BANK" FAIR VALUE : Rs.60

FABL Current Price: Rs.26.80

FABL "FAYSAL BANK" FAIR VALUE : Rs.60

Faysal Bank (FABL) is currently trading at 48% discou(0.85x) to 2nd tier banks’ average CY08E P/Bx of 1.6x. Ttranslates into 63% TSR (including 8% dividend yield) relation to our intrinsic value of Rs 60/share. Faysal Bankexpected to post a modest 3-year CAGR of 10% in nrevenues, whereas net earnings are expected to surge arate of 13%, despite lower ROE of 9% for CY08E. Wbelieve the scrip calls for Accumulate stance at curremarket price of Rs26.8/share.

"NBP" "FAir VALUE" Rs 207

"NBP" is attractive at current levels to Accumulate

"NBP Current" Price Rs.110.91

"NBP FAir VALUE" Rs 207

Recent slide in the index has made NBP the most attractive scrip in the sector, trading even below its book value. NBP is currently trading at CY08E P/Bx of 0.75 (sector CY08E P/B: 1.4). NBP’s historical (CY06-CY07) P/Bx has averaged 2.0x. NBP’s intrinsic value arrives at Rs 207/share, offering 55% TSR (including 8% dividend yield) from the current market price of Rs. 110.9/share. National Bank of Pakistan is expected to post a decent 3-year CAGR of 12% in revenues, whereas net earnings are expected to increase at a rate of 14%, despite lower ROE of 18% for CY08E. We believe the scrip is attractive at current levels to Accumulate.

FAIR VALUE OF LUCKY CEMENT RS. 98

FAIR VALUE OF LUCKY CEMENT RS. 98

DUE TO ECONOMICAL AND FINANCIAL BURDEN, WE ASSUME LUCKY CEMENT FAIR VALUE RS. 98

SHARES TO BUY AS ON 27-07-2008 KSE SHARES UP SIDE POTENTIAL

FOLLOWING ARE SHARES TO BUY AT KSE

APL FAIR VALUE 440, CURRENT PRICE 327, APL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 34%

PSO FAIR VALUE 535, CURRENT PRICE 405, PSO UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 32%

OGDCL FAIR VALUE 138, CURRENT PRICE 115.75, OGDCL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 19%.

POL FAIR VALUE 440, CURRENT PRICE 313, POL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 40%

PPL FAIR VALUE 287, CURRENT PRICE 228, PPL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 26%

UBL FAIR VALUE 110, CURRENT PRICE 80.20, UBL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 37%

NRL FAIR VALUE 354, CURRENT PRICE 244.5, NRL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 44%

FFBL FAIR VALUE 45, CURRENT PRICE 28.80, FFBL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 56%

PTCL FAIR VALUE 44, CURRENT PRICE 37.7, PTCL UP SIDE POTENTIONAL 18%

"KAPCO" - Kot Addu Power Compan "FAIR VALUE RS. 52

"KAPCO" - Kot Addu Power Compan "FAIR VALUE RS. 52

KAPCO FAIR VALUE IS RS. 52 ON THE BASIS OF THE FOLLOWINGS:

1) INTRODUCTION:
Kot Addu Power Company Limited "KAPCO" is IPP of country with a total capacity to produce 980GWH (Giga watt per hour) per month and also has an expansion plan of 450MW of electricity. The company started operations in 1996 under the “Power Policy 1994”. The company has a total of 15 turbines generators (10 gas combustion turbines and 5 steam turbines).

2) The demand of power in the country has been rising that would increase the sales revenue of the "KAPCO"

3) "KAPCO" Expansion plan will add more value to the company.

4) "KAPCO" also has the impressive dividend pay-out history over the period

5) Outlook for the "KAPCO" is positive

"OGDCL" "Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd" - PRODUCTION

"OGDCL" "Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd" - PRODUCTION

"OGDCL" OVERALL POSITIVE TREND

"OGDCL" showed 4.6% increase in crude oil production and stood at 43,350bpd during 2008 as against 41,435bpd in 2007.

This increase was due to rise in production from Kunnar, Chanda, Bobi and Mela fields. Gas production also showed an increase of 3.3% to 1,005mmcfd in 11mths’08 as compared to 973mmcfd in 11mths’07 mainly due to increased production from Qadirpur and Uch fields, which contributed 58.7% of the total gas production of the company.

"POL" - "Pakistan Oilfields Limited" PRODUCTION

"POL" - "Pakistan Oilfields Limited" "PRODUCTION"

POL OVER ALL DECLINING TREND

POL showed decline in both oil and gas production. Oil production showed dou-ble-digit decline of 12.9% to 5,218bpd in 2008 as against 5,991bpd in 2007. oTHER THAN Pindori field, which showed continued problems from last six month and oil production from the field declined 42.5% during the period under review, Uchri and Pariwali fields also showed a DOWNWARD TREND of 13.9% and 0.5% respectively. These three fields contributed 65.2% of the total oil production of the company. Gas production stood at 44mmcfd in the said period as com-pared to 46mmcfd in the parallel period of last year, showing a fall of 4.0%.

"PPL - Pakistan Petroleum Limited" PRODUCTION

"PPL" - "Pakistan Petroleum Limited" "PRODUCTION"

PPL showed rise in crude production on the back of additional pro-duction from Mela 1 during the period, crude oil production by the company stood at 4,031bpd in 11 months 2008 as against 2,726bpd in the year 2007Further to to Mela field, production from Tal block also showed an good rise of 37.4% during the period 2008 and contributed 17.1% of to-tal oil production of the company. Gas production declined nominally to 989mmcfd during 2008 as compared to 993mmcfd in 2007.

"FAIR VALUE" OF DG KHAN CEMENT - DGKC RS. 68

"FAIR VALUE" OF DG KHAN CEMENT - DGKC RS. 68

FAIR VALUE OF DGKC IS RS. 68 AND AT THE MOMENT IT IS TRADING AT 48.60, 41% BELOW FROM THE FAIR VALUE OF RS. 68

FAIR VALUE OF PPL RS. 287

"FAIR VALUE" OF "PPL RS. 287"

FAIR VALUE OF PPL IS RS 287 AND IT IS TRADING AT 205, 39% BELOW FROM THE FAIR VALUE OF RS. 287.

"FAIR VALUE" OF NRL RS. 354

"FAIR VALUE" OF NATIONAL REFINERY LTD - NRL IS RS. 354.

AT THE MOMENT IT IS TRADING AT RS 238, 48% BELOW FROM THE FAIR VALUE OF RS. 354

Fair Value of FFBL Rs. 45

"Fair Value of FFBL Rs. 45"

Fair Value of FFBL is Rs. 45 and at the moment it is trading at 26.50, 70% below from the fair value of Rs 45

Fair Value of UBL Rs. 110

"Fair Value of UBL Rs. 110"

Fair Value of UBL is Rs 110 and It is trading at Rs 65 and it is 68% below from the Fair value of rs. 110

Fair Value of POL Rs. 440

"Fair Value of POL Rs. 440 "

Fair value of POL is Rs. 440 and it is trading at Rs. 271 and it is 62% below from the fair Value.

"Fair Value" of Pak Suzuki Motor "PSMC" of Rs. 170

"Fair Value" of Pak Suzuki Motor "PSMC" of Rs. 170

Fair value of Pak Suzuki Motor is Rs. 170 and it is trading at about 88% below from the Fair Value of Rs. 170. It is the best option to buy this shares.

Detailed 16 Salient Features "Trade policy 2008-09"

Detailed 16 Salient Features "Trade policy 2008-09"

Salient features of Trade Policy 2008-09:

1) The export target for the fiscal year 2008-09 has been fixed at $22.10 billion, which represents a growth of 15% over the last year's exports worth $19.22 billion.

2) The total merchandise exports for the year 2007-08 were $19.22 billion with a record net increase (between 2006-07 and 2007-08) of $2.246 billion.

3) The total imports during the 2007-08 amounted to $39.97 billion giving rise to a trade deficit of $20.7 billion.

4) The underlying causes for this year's trade deficit were mainly the increase in oil prices raising its import bill to over $11.3 billion as against $7.3 billion last year; import of wheat at higher than previous prices; increase in price of palm oil from $502.7 PMT to $839.3 PMT; raw cotton imports due to crop shortfall; increase in import of machinery and increase in import of fertilizers and chemicals.

5) This year again the imports compared to last year have increased by $9.428 billion whereas exports have also increased by $2.246 billion.
Plant, machinery and equipment imported to setup a unit in DTRE scheme will be exempt from duty and taxes.

6) Inputs in DTRE will also be allowed to be imported from India, even if these are not included in the importable items from India, or manufactured locally.

7) The period of retention of raw material and components for export under temporary importation scheme (SRO 1065) may be increased from current 12 months to 18 months i.e. at par with DTRE.

8) It has been decided to increase the draw back rate by 1% of FOB value for 14 products i.e. (i) Tents, Canvas & Tarpaulin, (ii) Electric machinery,
(iii) Carpets, Rugs, & Mats, (iv) Sports Goods, (v) Footwear, (vi) Surgical Goods/Medical Instruments, (vii) Cutlery, (viii) Onyx manufactured, (ix) Electric
Fans, (x) Furniture, (xi) Auto Parts, (xii) Handicrafts, (xiii) Jewellery and (xiv) Pharmaceuticals .In order to facilitate the exports, the government has decided to introduce a new scheme where by a notified percentage of inputs may be allowed to be imported at zero duties against fob value of exports with flexibility to import any product among the notified list in any quantity within the overall entitlement of the exporter.

9) It is proposed to allow the temporary import of PET bottle scrap for manufacture and export of PSF in the DTRE scheme, subject to non-hazardous certification.

10) It has been decided to support the setting up of new pharmaceutical plants by providing it with the incentive of having an accelerated depreciation allowance facility of 90pc in the first year on investment in Plant Machinery and Equipment.

11) It has also been decided that Ministry of Health will draw up a proposal for establishing bio-availability and bio-equivalence laboratories in the National Institute of Health.

12) Export of free samples up to 5% of quantity is allowed against exports in the preceding year to pharmaceutical exporters.

13) In order to further facilitate exports in this sector it has now been decided to allow exporting companies to send free samples to the extent of 10% of the commercial quantity exported in the preceding year.

14) In addition pharmaceutical sector would also be allowed to retain 15% of their export proceeds.

15) To increase the exports of gems and Jewellery sector, and to encourage investment and remove all anti-export biases, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, diamond and precious stones be exempted from levy of customs duties & sales tax.

16) It has been decided that import of machinery / equipment for mining /quarrying and grinding of minerals (along with spares) would be allowed from India.

Important Measures in "Trade Policy 2008-09"

Important Measures in "Trade Policy 2008-09"

A) Allows import of 136 more items from India

B) Indian CNG bus manufacturers wishing to establish factories allowed to send 10 buses to Pakistan as test consignment

c) Payment of customs duty, sales taxes on precious gems abolished

D) Overseas Pakistanis allowed to re-export imported vehicles

E) Import of academic, scientific and reference books allowed from India

F) New Halal Certification Board to be set up

Trade Policy 2008-09

As per Trade Policy 2008-09, country’s exports Target is $22.1 billion and Import Target is at $30 billion. Commerce Minister said the government is to 15 percent increase in the country’s exports. Govt allow to import of 136 additional types of raw materials, machinery and transport fuels from India to facilitate export-oriented industries.

Customs duty and sales tax on gems has been deleted to increase exports. Also, import of machinery for mining and grinding of minerals has been allowed from India to promote export. The Govt has also allowed the import of 10-year-old and used buses and cement bulkers for use by industrial consumers.
Indian CNG bus manufacturers wishing to establish manufacturing facilities in Pakistan have been allowed to send 10 buses to Pakistan as test consignment. Overseas Pakistanis have been allowed to re-export their imported vehicles if they are unable to get them released due to higher tariff.
Import of academic, scientific and reference books has also been allowed from India, while the import of explosives and chemicals would be subject to a no-objection certificate from the Industries Ministry.
As per new policy also seeks to increase pharmaceutical exports by allowing 90 percent depreciation allowance on imported plants and equipments used in establishing new pharmaceutical plans. The Govt has also introduced initiatives to increase seafood, rice, handicrafts and horticulture exports.
As per trade policy has also announced a Halal Certification Board to establish certification and standards for the promotion of exports of halal food from the country.

TIPS FOR "KSE"

AT THE MOMENT TIME IS BUY HUBCO, PPL AND OGDCL. HOPE WITHIN ONE MONTH 20% CAPITAL GAIN CAN BE ACHIEVED.

"KSE" SUPPORT / INJECTION OF FUND

EOBI, STATE LIFE AND NIT WILL SUPPORT THE MARKET AT THE MOMENT. I HOPE NEXT WEEK WILL BE GOOD FOR THE MARKET

IMPACT OF REMOVAL OF DEEMED DUTY

Impact of removal of deemed duty


At the moment refining capacity of Pakistan is 13.5m tons per annum whereas the total consumption is 18m tons during Year 2008. Gap between the demand & supply is met through imports; which is having its toll on the national kitty due to the burgeoning amount of oil import bill. The total oil import bill is US$13Billion 2008 up 78% over US$7.3Billion 2007. Removal of deemed duty will have a negative impact on the refining sector as it is a significant source of revenue for the refineries. It’s removal or reduction will make refineries to put on hold their expansion plans and those refineries that are under construction or plan to enter Pakistan may decide to invest else where making the country to continue to dependent on oil imports.

"KSE" "SUPPORT FUND" OF RS. 50 BILLION

"KSE" SUPPORT FUND OF RS. 50 BILLION

KSE AND SECP DECIDED TO MAKE A KSE SUPPORT FUND OF RS. 50 BILLION TO GIVE OPPORTUNITY TO SMALL INVESTORS TO QUIT FROM THE MARKET AT 17 -07-2008 CLOSING RATES. IN THIS SMALL INVESTORS CAN QUIT, BUT REMEMBER IT IS TIME TO PURCHASE FROM THE MARKET. IT IS NOT GOOD DECISION FOR ANY INVESTOR TO QUIT FROM THE MARKET. HOPE ALL WILL UNDERSTAND.

WORLD BANK EMERGENCY PACKAGE FOR PAKISTAN

WORLD BANK APPROVES EMERGENCY PACKAGE OF USD 500 MILLION FOR PAKISTAN

FFBL EARNINGS FORECAST

FFBL EARNINGS FORECAST FOR 2ND QTR 2008 IS IN THE RANGE OF EPS RS. 0.52 TO 0.58. GROWTH IS EXPECTED 22.2% TO 32.6% IN HALF YEAR 2008. CASH DIVIDEND OF RS. 0.50 PER SHARE IN HALF YEAR IS EXPECTED.

KSE AT ATTRACTIVE LEVELS "PPL AND OGDCL TO BUY"

KSE AT ATTRACTIVE LEVELS

AT THE MOMENT BUYING IN CEMENT AND OIL EXPLORATION LIKE PPL AND OGDCL IS SUGGESTED.

AUTO SECTOR OUTLOOK

AUTO SECTOR OUTLOOK

IT IS EXPECTED DECLINING TREND OF AOTU WILL CONTINUE. HENCE SELLING IS SUGGESTED LIKE BANKS I SUUGESTED IN BEGINNING OF THE YEAR

AUTO SALES DECLINING TREND

AUTO SALES DECLINE BY 4.2%

PAK SUZUKI SALES DECLINE BY 6.7%

INDUS MOTORS SALES DECLINE BY 5.6%

HONDA SALES DECLINE BY 22.7%

DEWAN FAROOQ SALES DECLINE BY 35.8%

It is Time to BUY SHARES AT KSE

It is Time to BUY SHARES AT KSE.

After a long period of Downfall, It is time to BUY SHARES at KSE.

Tips are for HUBCO, PPL, POL abd OGDC

"Buy Shares" in KSE "Stock market" "Pakistan"

Buy as u can HUBCO, PPL, OGDC and POL

"TRADE POLICY 2008-09"

IT IS EXPECTED IN TRADE POLICY 2008-9 THAT TO ALOW OVERSEAS PAKISTANIES TO IMPORT 7 YEARS OLD AND USED CARS IN "TRADE POLICY 2008-209".

CRUDE OIL FORECAST AT USD 250

RUSSIAN ENEGY GIANT GAZPROM FORECAST THA THE PRICE OF OIL WILL RISE TO 250 DOLLARS PER BARREL

CEMENT EXPORTS RISE BY 142%

CEMENT EXPORTS RISE BY 142% AS 7.72 MN MT IN YEAR 2008 AS COMPARED TP 3.19 MN MT IN YEAR 2007. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE UPCOMING WORLDCUP IN SOUTH AFRICA.

LOCAL DAMAND SHOWED 6 % GROWTH.

THIS WAS DUE TO PKISTAN INTERNAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND IT MAY GO DOWN DUE TO RISE IN CEMENT PRICES

INCREASE IN UREA PRICES

UREA PRICES INCREASED IN PAKISTAN BY RS. 70 PER 50 KG BAG.

DUE TO THE FOLLOWINGS:

1) PASSING THROUGH HIGH INPUT COST
2) SAFEGUARD THE SQUEEZING MARGINS
3) SHORTAGE IN LOCAL MARKET
4) HIGH DEMAND
5) DEMAND IS 4.5 TO 5 MN MT WHEREAS PRODUCTION IS 4 MN MT.

STOCK MARKET SENTIMENTS KSE

IT IS OVSERVED IN THIS CURRENT UNSTABLE POLITICAL AND POOR ECONOMIC SITUATION OF PAKISTAN, INVESTORS CONFIDENSE IS TOTALLY SHATTERED AND NO ONE READY TO THINK ABOUT THE SITUATION OF STOCK MARKET. HOWEVER REMEMBER WHEN ANY ONE PICKS SCRIPTS OF VALUEABLE AT SUCH SITUATION, HE ALWAYS REMAIN IN BENEFIT. HOPE SOME ONE WILL REALIZE AND PICK THE SCRIPTS LIKE ENERGY AND CEMENT SCRIPTS

KSE LATEST TREND

AS EVERY ONE WITNESSED THAT KSE TREND IS NEAGTIVE AND IF SOME ONE LIKE TO EXIT. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR HIM. I THINK KSE MANAGEMENT AND SECP WILL SOON MEET AND SORT OUT THE PROBLEM OF LOWER CIRCUIT BREAKERS.

HOPE FOR BETTER TOMOROOW

FAIR VALUE OF SSGC RS. 14

SSGC FAIR VALUE DOWNGRADED TO RS. 14 AS PER KASB SOURCES.