HBL - Earnings expectation 2009

HBL - Earnings expectation 2009   HBL is going to announce its full year result tomorrow. We estimate the bank to post handsome earning growth of 61.7% YoY to post PAT of Rs. 13 billion (EPS: Rs. 17.14). The handsome growth in earnings is attributable to lower provisioning by the banks against NPLs as compared to CY08. Total provision against NPL's is likely to stand at Rs. 4.5 bn against Rs. 8.16 bn depicting a decline of 44%. In 4QCY08, the bank is expected to post PAT of Rs. 3.39 bn (EPS: Rs. 4.47) against loss of Rs. 1.17 bn in 4QCY07 (LPS: Rs. 1.54). We expect cash dividend of Rs. 5 per share with possible bonus of 10%.