E&P Production Data Analysis 10 month 2008

E&P Production Data Analysis 10 month 2008


The overall crude oil production of the E&P sector rose by 4.8% during 10mths’08
to 70,104bpd. Total Natural Gas production also rose by 2.5% to 3,982mcfd during
10mhs’08 as compared to 3,883mmcfd in the same period last year. On MoM basis
the production of both gas and oil showed declining trend mainly due to fall in
production from Pindori, Sui, Miano and Dhodak fields.



E&P Production Update – 10mnths 2008

As per data issued by PPIS OGDC continued to lead the market in both crude and
gas production with oil production showing an increase of 5.3% during 10mths’08
whereas gas production also showed an increase of 3.7% during the said period.
Oil production by OGDC depicted increase mainly on the back of increased
production from Mela, Bobi and Chanda fields. Gas production increased because
of rise in production from Uch, Qadirpur and Bobi fields however fall in production
from Miano and Dhodak fields.



Gas Production

PPL showed handsome gains in crude production due to additional production
during the period from Mela field, on the other hand gas production showed
negligible decline of 0.1% in 10mths’08 and also on MoM basis by 4.2% mainly on
the back of fall in production from Sui, Miano & Kandkot. Crude production from
Mela and Tal block boosted oil productin volume for the company.
POL showed double-digit fall in production of crude by 12.7% in 10mths’08 to
5,304bpd whereas on MoM basis crude production rose by 4.6% mainly on the
back of improvement in production from Pindori field, overall production from which
rose to 2125bpd in Apr’08 from 1,588bpd in Mar’08. Gas production showed decline
of 4.0% to 45mmcfd due to fall in production from Meyal Uchri and Pindori.

Crude Oil Natural Gas


Drilling Status

The total drilling target for FY’08 was of 42 exploratory wells and 45 appraisal wells,
of this 52% of exploratory and 100% of the appraisal wells have been achieved
during 10mths’08. OGDC had estimated its drilling target for FY’08 at 17 exploratory
wells and 24 development wells, of which the company has achieved 29% of its
exploratory target and 67% of its development target, making it unlikely for the
company to achieve its full year’s target.

Exploration and Production data 10 months 2008

Exploration and Production data 10 months 2008

Conclusion:
The overall crude oil production of the E&P sector rose by 4.8% during 10mths’08 to 70,104bpd. Total Natural Gas production also rose by 2.5% to 3,982mcfd during 10mhs’08 as compared to 3,883mmcfd in the same period last year. On MoM basis the production of both gas and oil showed declining trend mainly due to fall in production from Pindori, Sui, Miano and Dhodak fields.

If you have any query or question please contact and leave comments

FAIR VALUES

Fair Values of Shares

I hope all are well. Please note that following strategy will be good for trading in stock market for the next week:

Please also note that daily sale & purchase is dangerious, always play in normal conditions and according to situation.


Shares
.
Bank Sector Buy when Less than HOLD SELL when greater than

AKBL 45 45-55 55
MCB 260 260-280 280


OMCS Sector

POL 415 415-440 440
PPL 275 275-290 290
OGDCL 120 120-135 135
APL 550 550-570 570
PSO 500 500-530 530
SSGC 20 20-25 25

FERTIZER Sector

FFBL 45 45-50 50
ENGRO 330 330-350 350
FFC 135 135-150 150


CEMENT Sector

DG 110 110-120 120
LUCKY 130 130-150 150


TEXTILE Sector

NML 85 85-100 100


AUTO Sector

INDUS 250 250-285 285

INSURANCE Sector

ADAMJEE 290 290-315 315

Please note that I need your comments for better result and search


Thanking you

Muhammad Ijaz
www.stockpk.blogspot.com

Fertilizer - Budgetary Steps

Fertilizer - Budgetary Steps

Relief to the agriculture sector

The following measures have been taken to ensure relief and motivation to the farmer as well as incentives to the agriculture sector:

a) Increase of support price of wheat from Rs 510 to Rs 625 per 40 KG.
b) Review of the support price for the next year's wheat crop in August September i.e. before the next sowing season keeping in view the input cost and prevailing international prices.
c) Provision of Rs 75 billion in the PSDP to improve the availability and efficient use of water resources through construction of dams, rehabilitation of irrigation, improve drainage system, lining of canals and water courses throughout the country.
d) To ensure that agriculture produce retains it value and quality and to facilitate its export. Cold chains will be set up in the country.
e) Arrangements for import of bulldozers through foreign collaboration to increase and improve the cultivable area.

Subsidy on DAP

The subsidy for the fertilizer sector has been enhanced to PKR32bn against PKR25bn in Budget FY08 attributable primarily to the phenomenal rise in global fertilizer prices, especially phosphates. The government has raised the DAP subsidy from the previous level of PKR470/bag to PKR1,000/bag.

Agri-Credit

Budget FY09 has remained focussed on the agriculture sector especially in light of spiralling food prices & supply shortages. Accordingly, the agri-credit target has been set at PKR160bn for FY09. In addition, the government is also revamping ZTBL in an attempt to broaden its outreach.

Grain handling & storage facility

Duty free import of machinery and equipment for grain handling and storage facilities to be de-linked from the conditionality of local manufacture. This will largely help in improving the grain handling and storage facilities in the country.

Crop Insurance Policy

It has also been decided to waive-off the levy of 5% Federal Excise Duty on premium of crop insurance policy.

Quality seed supply

To enhance supply of quality seed to farmers, a National Commercial Seed Production Program is being prepared. Negotiations have been started for fast track, formal release of Bt cotton varieties in Pakistan.

Exemption of sales tax on import and local supply of fertilizer

Sales tax on import and local supply of fertilizers and pesticides has been exempted. Exemption of sales tax on import and local supply of fertilizers and pesticides is aimed at providing fertilizers and pesticides at cheaper prices to the farmers.
Fertilizer
Impact - Positive
• The government had made it clear that it would realign its focus on the agricultural sector given the shortfall in the global grain market; rising pressure on the import bill from oil and spiraling food inflation. We understand that what is good for the agricultural sector would turn out to be good for fertilizer companies in terms of
stronger demand and margin outlook.

• The increase in DAP subsidy should help drive DAP sales, which in turn should help the country achieve self sufficiency in major crops particularly wheat. This should also help fuel a major DAP sales rebound and help improve pricing power for FFBL in particular; facilitate placement of fresh import orders and hence result in inventory gains on old stocks.

• The exemption from sales tax and other duties would have little impact on fertilizer price. It would, however, not help reduce fertilizer prices down to a level which could fuel its application.

• An increase in agri-credit would bode well for the fertilizer sector in terms of enhanced liquidity available to the sector and hence fertilizer companies.

• The decision to faciliate establishment of grain handling and storage facilities: crop insurance policy and ensuring availibility of quality seeds should augar well for fertilizer sector in general.

Telecom - Budgetary Steps

Telecom - Budgetary Steps

Duty on imported mobile phones

Specific customs duty of Rs500/- per set has been levied on imported mobile cellular phones.

Rate of FED raise on services

To generate additional revenue for meeting dire national needs, rate of FED on telecommunication services is being enhanced to 21%.

General Sales Tax (GST) raised

GST has been raised by 100bps to 16%.

Rate of FED raise on franchise

In order to meet the revenue requirements, FED rate has been enhanced from 5% to 10% on banking, insurance and franchise services.

Customs duty on Voice Cards and Vast Terminals

Customs duty on Voice Cards and Vast Terminals - meant for use in the telephone call centers – has been slashed to the lower slab of 5% with exemption from sales tax.

Recipient of services

The liability of recipient of excisable services to pay duty has been established. Accordingly, an enabling provision has been made to charge duty from the recipient of services coming from abroad and terminating in Pakistan.

Impact - Neutral to Negative

• Duty on imported mobile phone sets will help check rising consumerism in the country.

• The decision to raise FED on telecommunication services; enhance FED on franchise and establish the liability of recipents of excersiable service coupled with a marginal incraese in GST will not have any significant implact given the pass-through nature of these costs.

Auto Assemblers - Budgetary Steps

Auto Assemblers - Budgetary Steps


WHT increase on car registration

The rates of advance tax, collected at the time of renewal of registration of private motor cars, are proposed to be rationalized by making about 30% to 40% increase in WHT rates.

Increase in duty rates on 1800cc cars or above

Increase in duty rates on import of cars/jeeps above 1800cc from 90% to 100%. Fixed duty/tax rates on old and used cars/jeeps increased by 10%.

Imposition of 5% FED on imported and locally manufactured car of 850cc

To generate revenue from well to do people, FED @ 5% has been levied on import as well as locally manufactured cars having engine capacity exceeding 850cc.

Tariff based system

Tariff based system of the auto industry is being improved further. The new tariff lines will continue to attract additional duty at the rate of 15% as the respective items are being manufactured locally.

CNG Buses

In order to encourage import of dedicated CNG buses, 15% customs duty on their import will be abolished.

Impact - Neutral to Negative

• We feel that overall Budget FY09 would bode negatively for the auto sector. Steps such as increase in withholding tax at the time of renewal of car registration, imposition of 5% FED onn imported and locally manufactured cars of 850cc and the rationalisation of tariff based system would increase the input costs of local auto assemblers.

• Luxury vehicles account for approximately 25% of imported units. The government’s decision to increase duty rates on 1800cc cars should help divert a major portion of their demand towards locally assembled cars in the luxury segment thus boding favourably for the domestic auto assemblers.FEDERAL BUDGET 2008-09

Refineries and E&P - Budgetary Steps

Refineries and E&P - Budgetary Steps

Recipient of services

The liability of recipient of excisable services to pay duty has been established. Accordingly, an enabling provision has been made to charge duty from the recipient of services coming from abroad and terminating in Pakistan.

Reduction of duty on lubricating oils

Duty rate on base oil for lubricating oils reduced from 20% to 10%.

Impact - Negative for refineries
• The slashing of duty on lube base oils would depress the Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) of National Refinery Ltd. - the only lube producer in the country - and hence bode negatively for the local refinery.Refinery